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Our news and views relating to Data Analytics, Big Data, Machine Learning, and the world of Credit.

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Gareth Cliff And Ben Karpinski Chat Rugby Predictions With Us

October 17, 2015 at 7:00 AM

CliffCentral chats rugby predictions with Principa

Listen to Gareth Cliff and Ben Karpinski of CliffCentral chatting to one of our data scientists about our use of Machine Learning and Predictive Analytics to predict the results of the Rugby World Cup matches. Listen here 11 minutes and 30 seconds into the clip.

 

Read all our   Rugby World Cup  media coverage

 

 

Predicting the future of your business

 

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The time is NOW for model validation and adjustment.

One of the major premises used in credit scoring is that “the future is like the past”. It’s usually a rational assumption and gives us a reasonable platform on which to build scorecards whether they be application scorecards, behavioural scores, collection scores or financial models.  That is reasonable until something unprecedented comes along.  You can read about this black swan event in our previous two blogs here and here

10 ways the COVID-19 crisis will affect your credit models (PART 2)

This is the second of a 2-part blog. You can read the first blog here.

10 ways the COVID-19 crisis will affect your credit models (PART 1)

One of the basic principles of credit scoring and modelling is that the “future is like the past”.  Whilst robust credit models may be calibrated on multiple time periods, this assumes that trends in the past represent what is going on today.  COVID-19 is a black swan event – meaning in the modern day it really is unprecedented.  If you have never come across the term black swan, or if you have but no idea the origin, I recommend taking two minutes to read its really interesting etymology.