Our news and views relating to Data Analytics, Big Data, Machine Learning, and the world of Credit.
Organisations and individuals, need to adapt and change to the new ways of working to ensure that we survive this pandemic, and protect our sustainability for the future.
One of the major premises used in credit scoring is that “the future is like the past”. It’s usually a rational assumption and gives us a reasonable platform on which to build scorecards whether they be application scorecards, behavioural scores, collection scores or financial models. That is reasonable until something unprecedented comes along. You can read about this black swan event in our previous two blogs here and here
This is the second of a 2-part blog. You can read the first blog here.
One of the basic principles of credit scoring and modelling is that the “future is like the past”. Whilst robust credit models may be calibrated on multiple time periods, this assumes that trends in the past represent what is going on today. COVID-19 is a black swan event – meaning in the modern day it really is unprecedented. If you have never come across the term black swan, or if you have but no idea the origin, I recommend taking two minutes to read its really interesting etymology.
In 2011, Microsoft founder, Bill Gates, reflected on the many strides researchers have made in terms of treating diseases such as HIV, malaria and polio. Gates warned us, “There is one area, though, where the world isn’t making much progress, and that’s pandemic preparedness. This should concern us all because if history has taught us anything, it’s that there will be another deadly global pandemic”.